For the second edition of this newsletter in a row, we’re going to be talking about climate change. Obviously, it’s a real problem. But how can scientists, meteorologists and climatologists all relay that message in a way that the general public and decision makers understand?
That was the topic of discussion for Marshall Shepherd at Virginia Tech’s Fralin Biomedical Research Center in Roanoke last month (and a note of disclosure, Radio IQ, which distributes this newsletter, is a service of Virginia Tech). Shepherd – who's talk was titled "Cloudy with a chance of science" – is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and is a former NASA scientist. He also previously served as the President of the American Meteorological Society and hosts a show on the Weather Channel called “Weather Geeks.”
The 2023-2024 Winter Outlook
We’re in the middle of fall y'all – but most folks are already thinking about the winter months and what they’ll bring for Virginia.
Phil Hysell with the National Weather Service in Blacksburg says this winter will be largely impacted by some global weather patterns. That includes El Nino – which is part of a larger oscillation determined by ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino winters typically bring above normal temperatures and precipitation levels to this part of the world.
Another global weather pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, will play a role, too.
“If we can get into a negative North Atlantic Oscillation that allows that cold air to spill down out of Canada and the Arctic and combine that with all the moisture that’s going to be in place, there will be more opportunities for snow, for sure,” he says.
Because of those factors, Hysell does believe the odds of Virginia seeing more snow this season compared to last are good. But, that’s not exactly a high bar to cross considering the low snow totals – sometimes to a historic degree – areas across the state saw in 2022-2023.
Regardless of projections, Hysell adds it’s important to be prepared for winter weather – and now is the time to do that. You can find more information about how to do that here.
Shepherd spends a lot of time thinking about this issue. He showed a graphic outlining extreme heat anomalies over the last few decades.
“Heat waves of the 1960s – or extreme heat in 1960s – are now average events. So, what were considered anomalously hot events in the 1960s, right? [Those] are now average events.”
But that’s not the area that concerns him the most…
“The cool events or the cooling down at night is much warmer. So, in other words, where we start to see heat-related health outcomes is because people are really vulnerable to the low temperatures at night," he said. "And when they are too elevated, that begins to create health issues.”
Shepherd pointed to an example from earlier this year – Phoenix had 20 days in a row this summer with 115-degree high temperatures. But, it would often still be 90 degrees at night during that span.
He went on to call climate change a “wicked challenge.” That’s an issue that lies at the intersection of science, perception and society – and in this case, a challenge at the intersection of weather, climate and society.
Those wicked challenges become worse when they are compounded. Shepherd showed a graphic of hurricane tracks over the last three years over areas that were highly socially vulnerable and had high death rates from COVID to give an example of this idea.
Despite the evidence and those problems, Shepherd still has people come up to him and say that climate change is a hoax. He pointed to data that shows 50% of the American population thinks climate change is mostly due to human activity, compared to 87% of the scientific community.
“How did we get there that we see so much blue – which is the difference between what scientists believe and what the public thinks," he asked. "How’d we get there?”
Shepherd believes that gap can be explained in a number of ways:
First off, he said people’s beliefs on scientific topics often come down to what he called “marinades.”
“If you put vegetables or meat in a marinade – over time it takes on that flavor. Well, each of you, and me too, have sort of been soaking in various marinades all of our lives," he explained. "Cultural marinades, geographic marinades, religious, political – they have shaped us in some way.”
As an example of this idea, Shepherd talked about the prevalent belief that “heat lightning” exists (it doesn’t; it’s just lightning from a storm that is too far away for you to hear thunder) and forecasts based off groundhogs or the Farmer’s Almanac.
“Rodents don’t have skill at numerical weather prediction.”
He said that a recent study from Yale found that only 11% of the U.S. population is dismissive of climate change and its impacts – but that crowd is vocal and can have an effect on perceptions overall.
Secondly, Shepherd said people are shaped by their biases and belief systems. But climate change isn’t a belief system. It’s something that is actually happening, and so scientists must work to address the “do you believe in climate change” thinking.
And finally, the public’s literacy and mental models mold perceptions as well. Shepherd said many people struggle with risk assessment and the idea of probabilities – including meteorologists! He asked the audience what a 30% chance of rain means – something that those in the field find confusing themselves.
“Percent chance of rain is really this construct that’s trying to take into account the aerial coverage of the [National] Weather Service area and the confidence that the forecaster has in her forecast,” he said.
Shepherd ended his talk by pointing to some solutions or ways that this gap between what people and scientists think about climate change can be addressed. He said those in the fields studying these topics may need to undergo some training on how to better communicate the risks to the public.
And for the rest of us, Shepherd recommended taking an inventory of the “marinades” that shape us, working to understand them and expanding our science information budget – looking at sources beyond social media.
He came to a close on this point…
“But the good news is – even after COVID – a Pew study and others; people still trust scientists. 86% of the population still trusts in what we do as scholars and scientists. Now, we have to have integrity. We have to make sure we’re doing the science correctly; be healthily skeptical of our own work and question it," Shepherd said. "It is important to question methods, data and so forth. But there are mechanisms to do that. Tweeting it and saying it’s wrong just because you can tweet it is not the mechanism unless you can show me show me evidence or scholarly rigor.”
Thanks for checking out this edition of CommonWx — the weather and climate newsletter from Radio IQ. Use this link to get the newsletter sent to your inbox.
