Early voting is changing how much campaigns know about people who have already cast a ballot, which is also changing how campaigns plan.
Campaigns have a lot of data about voters. They know if you have voted in a Democratic primary or a Republican primary. And now that early voting numbers are available, Paul Wescott at L2 Data says that information can be used to model all kinds of behavior.
"Being able to pair it back to the early return data is especially new," says Wescott. "This is really like the last two to four years, where we’re actually able to see not only that someone has returned their ballot but what's their income? What's their education? What's their likely party affiliation? Where we're able to then really paint a picture of the early electorate."
Data analytics about voters has been around for decades. But now that early voting data is available, Chaz Nuttycombe at CNalysis says campaigns know a lot more about what's happening before Election Day.
"COVID changed the game when it comes to early voting. I think that is obviously something that has been working in Democrats' favor here in Virginia, and the Republicans know it," Nuttycombe says. "And so, that's why Republicans are trying to make a play for it hoping that they can get some of these more high-propensity voters to participate in the early vote so that they can focus on the low-propensity voters."
Campaigns have a read on who has already voted and who has not yet cast a ballot. So, if you want all that direct mail to stop, go ahead and cast a ballot now. The campaigns will stop trying to get your vote.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
