A new poll from Roanoke College is the first from the school since Vice President Kamala Harris secured the top of the Democratic ticket.
The presidential race is close but has shifted slightly towards the Democrats since Roanoke College’s last polling in May.
That’s according to Harry Wilson, senior political analyst at the school.
Harris currently leads former President Donald Trump 47 to 44 – within the survey’s margin of error.
Wilson says President Joe Biden’s historic decision to step out of the race hasn’t really swayed voters in Virginia much.
“We had ninety some percent of Democrats in May saying they were going to vote for Biden. Now, we’ve got nine some percent of Democrats saying they’re going to vote for Harris," he explains. "So, in that regard, it was really sort of a seamless transition for something that was unprecedented.”
Those backing candidates outside the two major political parties could be an important factor in the election's outcome.
“If those folks move in one direction or another – and that’s not uncommon, that we as we get closer to an election we see support for third-party candidates decline," Wilson says. "If they move someplace else also can greatly impact the race for the top two candidates.”
Nearly 80% of all those who responded to the school’s most recent survey say they’re very certain of their vote choice. Just two percent of likely voters said they’re currently undecided.
The polling also asked about the U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine and Republican challenger Hung Cao. Kaine leads that contest by 11 points.
Just under 60% of those who responded to the survey approved of Glenn Youngkin's job as governor — the highest figure in his term so far.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
