Virginia is reporting its lowest recidivism rate in more than 20 years—tied with Minnesota for the second lowest in the nation, but Professor Jeffrey Butts at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York is not impressed.
“Just claiming that my recidivism rate is lower than yours is a ridiculous contest. It tells me nothing about overall public safety.”
That’s because states calculate recidivism in different ways over different periods of time. Some count arrests over a one or two-year period after release. Others track over three years and rely on convictions, and many send people back to prison for parole violations.
“So interesting fact about Virginia is it doesn’t have parole.”
That’s Shawn Bushway, a professor of criminal justice with the University at Albany. A few people in this state are still eligible for parole, but Bushway says very few are getting it. In other states which have parole, people are being released and supervised.
“And it’s easier to go back to prison if you’re supervised than if you’re not.”
The Director of Virginia’s Department of Corrections believes our low rate of recidivism is a sign that the Commonwealth is a leader in the field of corrections, but it could also be that this state locks up more people for non-violent crimes. Again, Professor Jeffrey Butts.
“The one way I can guarantee you’d have a low recidivism rate is to arrest a lot of people for trivial offenses.”
Those folks are just less likely to commit future crimes.
Long sentences could also explain low recidivism in this state. Take Keith Hill, for example. He’s in prison for conspiracy to steal a shipment of cigarettes from a warehouse in Roanoke. At the time he was working two jobs and was lured by the promise of easy money. Instead, he was sentenced to 60 years.
Now he’s part of a trend here and nationwide – an aging prison population that Shawn Bushway says is less likely to break the law on release.
“The recidivism rates across the country have been declining, and the primary reason for that is that the population of people in prisons are older, and they just do not recidivate at the same rate.”
And, finally, Bushway read the fine print. Getting past the press release, he studied the Department of Corrections’ full report and noted this detail.
“Differences in reconviction rates may be the result of court delays due to closures and operating at limited capacities during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
In other words, the current statistic is based on arrests and sentencing in 2019, 2020 and 2021 – a time when courts were not processing as many people and judges were sending fewer defendants into crowded prisons where they might catch what could be a deadly disease.
Virginia’s Secretary of Public Safety concluded a recidivism rate of 19% shows the state is working hard to keep Virginia safe, but – again – Jeff Butts says a low rate of recidivism doesn’t always equate to safety.
"People would be surprised to know that less than half of all crimes are reported to the police. Let’s say you have something stolen from your house. You have to judge which is more annoying – to have to pay to replace the thing that was stolen or to call the police and sit through that discussion and possibly end up in a court hearing. A lot of times people would rather just deal with the loss and move on."
Whatever the reason for Virginia’s low rate of recidivism, experts agree that there are some sure-fire ways to reduce the number of people heading back to prison after release – helping them to get good jobs, find secure housing and support in their communities.
