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Mapping Potential Medicaid Expansion

Evan Vucci / AP

Throughout Virginia, 400,000 people who live in poverty or with disabilities stand to benefit it Medicaid is expanded. Where are they? Michael Pope is mapping the geography of Virginia’s hottest political debate.

Fairfax County has more people than anywhere else in Virginia, so it might not be surprising that it also has the most number of people who would benefit from expanding Medicaid. But a new study from the Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis shows the geography of Medicaid expansion isn’t as obvious as urban versus rural. Laura Goren is research director at the institute.

“If you look at a share of the population, there are more folks who would benefit in Virginia’s rural areas. And you get a real sense of that when you look at the state legislative districts, such as the Senate districts.”

For example, she points out, the districts represented by Republican Senator Bill Stanley and Republican Senator Charles Carrico. They’re both opposed to expanding Medicaid, but their districts have some of the largest numbers of people who would benefit. Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University points out, voters in those districts have divided interests.

“They’re not voting their own economic interest. They’re voting social interest or political interest over their own economic interest. Or, in this case, over their own health interest.”

Next week, Republicans will convene in Richmond. And, once again, they’re planning on rejecting Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe’s plan to expand health insurance to people who live in poverty or with disabilities.