Many parts of Virginia are declining in population, a trend that’s only expected to increase in the coming years.
Danville currently has a population of about 40,000 people. By 2030, the folks at the University of Virginia estimate it’ll have 35,000. Then, by 2040, it’ll be down to 30,000. That’s a 25% decline in Danville’s population over the next two decades.
“The rural communities are witnessing a decline,” says Shonel Sen at UVA's Weldon Cooper Center. It recently issued a 20-year forecast for Virginia cities and counties. She says in the next few years, more than 70% of Virginia’s population will be living in the three largest metropolitan areas.
“And only 12% of Virginians will be living in the non-metro areas. So this is quite a stark contrast between the rural and the urban sections and regions of the state,” Sen says.
Places like Loudoun and Prince William County are booming.
But Mark Mather at the Population Reference Bureau says the places that aren’t booming are caught in a kind of downward spiral — where people move away, so businesses won’t locate there, which means more people leave.
“And so people aren’t moving in because of the lack of jobs, and businesses aren’t locating there," he explains. "So it tends to spiral downward until the population just keeps declining and it can be very hard to reverse that once it’s started.”
That downward spiral is hitting places like Danville and Martinsville hardest, rural parts of the Virginia where Mather says a lack of young people is causing dwindling tax revenue, limited options for health care and declining school enrollment.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
