A Virginia Tech political scientists says the high number of Republicans in Congress not seeking re-election is setting the scene for Democrats to take the U.S. House in the November elections. But when it comes to congressional races in rural parts of Virginia, support for Republicans remains strong.
Jason Kelly, an assistant professor of political science at Virginia Tech, says if the midterm elections were held tomorrow, he'd expect Democrats to win control the House of representatives.
With a record 43 open Republican seats, 39 of them in the House of Representative, Kelly says 19 are in competitive districts. And way things are going, he expects the vacancies to increase.
Tracking outcomes in all the special elections since 2016, and statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, Kelly notes a steep decline for Republican electoral victories across the country since then.
" Republicans are hemorrhaging support in suburban areas" Kelly argues.
Kelly says, there's also" an 'enthusiasm gap' between the parties. Democrats are turning out their core supporters and Republicans are not. But what's not happening," says Kelly, "is a decline in Republican support in ruby red Republican areas. If anything, turn out seems to be up a bit or flat."
Those ruby red areas comprise most of southwestern Virginia. Kelly says this trend is showing up in rural parts of states all over the country. Republicans are more popular than ever with their core constituents, but with more of them giving up their seats than ever before, Democrats have more opportunities to gain majority control of the House in November.
"We haven't seen this many retirements from one party going back to world war II. It puts Republicans in a more vulnerable spot than they would be if they had incumbents running in those districts."
And it's more than just the typical loss of seats for the party of a president in midterm elections. Kelly says, this record breaking exodus by Republicans could put the Democrats seven or eight points ahead in the House Race. Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, which he predicts, they'll continue to control.
