We’re right, smack-dab in the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season – which runs through November 1st. But the peak of the season typically occurs between August and September.
So far in this still pretty young season, there have been four named storms, with only minimal impacts to the continental U.S.
Back in May, before the season started, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its forecasters predicted this year’s season would be “near-normal.” That amounts to 12-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes – up to four of which could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.
Now that were into the thick of summer, Colorado State University has released a mid-season projection. Phil Klotzbach is a meteorologist and research scientist at CSU.
“We’re now forecasting an above-normal season – a total of 18 named storms. Of those 18, nine becoming hurricanes and of those nine, four becoming major, Category 3,4, 5 storms.”
Klotzbach says they originally were forecasting an average season, but things have changed.
“And so basically this year it’s a tug-of-war between two large factors – we have El Nino in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is warmer than normal waters in the Pacific Ocean, and normally when that’s there, you tend to get strong winds blowing out of the west high up in the atmosphere to tear apart hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the Atlantic is also basically record warm right now and what does is basically provides more fuel for storms and may tend to combat some of that stronger shear which would tend to knock down the season.”
He goes on to say that while forecasting in general always has a level of uncertainty to it, this year that is especially true.
“We haven’t really had this combination of phenomena simultaneously. So, normally when the Atlantic is really, really warm, we’ve had either neutral conditions in the Pacific or even La Nina, which is basically the opposite of El Nino. And alternatively, when we’ve had El Nino in the past, the Atlantic hasn’t been as warm as it is now. So, we’re kind of in – at least from an observation perspective – somewhat uncharted territory. There’s just a lot of uncertainty because we don’t have a great analogue in the past.”
Klotzbach says more active seasons generally have more land-falling hurricanes. And inversely, you can have very busy seasons without many landfalls. He stresses one thing remains the same in every season, though.
“We say with these seasonal forecasts that they’re more an information tool – like people are just curious how busy a season is going to be – but it’s not a preparedness tool. You just need to be prepared the same every hurricane season regardless of the outlooks from our group at CSU, from NOAA or anyone else doing these seasonal projections.”
This year marks the 40th year that Colorado State University has put out its annual outlook on the Atlantic hurricane season. Klotzbach says the group uses a lot of historical data and historical weather and climate patterns to see what kinds of conditions preceded active – or less active – seasons. And as more time goes on, those records just get better and better.
That work also now uses climate model forecasts.
“In this case, we’re talking not climate model projections say for like 2100 like climate change kind of stuff – but basically what the forecast is for the next one, two, three months. And at that time frame, we’re not saying what the weather’s going to be like 47 days from now. But on average, these models can predict with some skill what the wind patterns are going to be like, what the pressure patterns are going to be like, what the water temperatures are going to be like one or two months into the future.”
Klotzbach says that kind of modeling just wasn’t available when CSU began its projections back in the 1980’s.
NWS Director stops in Roanoke
The director of the National Weather Service, Ken Graham, stopped in Roanoke last week to talk about hurricane preparedness. He was joined by other NWS officials, as well as representatives from the state and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Whether along the coast or further inland, most deaths related to hurricanes come from flooding. Graham talked about how it was so important to have a plan before disaster strikes. For the first time ever, Virginia now has an inland flooding guide for hurricane prep.
Graham also made several important announcements about some changes to the way NWS will operate in the near future. That includes embedding a meteorologist in the Virginia Department of Emergency Management.
“For a Weather Service meteorologist to sort that information to say, ‘Look, this is what it really means to you.’ That helps the timeline," he said. "If I could give another six hours, 12 hours, 24 hours on a timeline for an emergency manager – that’s an eternity. Think about the things that can be done from resources to evacuations – that type of thing.”
Additionally, the National Weather Service will soon have a new chat platform for better collaboration between the agency and its media and emergency management partners. NWS is also updating its website and plans to translate its data and information to the languages most often spoken in this country over the next few years.
Be sure to check out Radio IQ's full coverage of the story here.
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