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Polling is All Over the Map in Hotly Contested Race for Governor

AP Photo / Steve Helber

Polling in Virginia's gubernatorial race is a mixed bag, with different polls predicting different results next week.

For months, most of the polling in the race for governor have had basically the same result — Democrat Ralph Northam slightly ahead of Republican Ed Gillespie, usually within the margin of error. But the last few weeks have seen a shift, and the last six polls have been all over the place. Three have Gillespie ahead, and three have Northam ahead. Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University says not all polling is equal.

“Some are doing what we call RDD polling, random digit dial. They’re calling every number in Virginia and then they’re asking people if they’re registered to vote and if they plan on voting. Other polls like ours, do what’s called voter list surveys.”

Gillespie supporters point to polling back in 2014, when the Republican came very close to beating Democrat Mark Warner — despite what the polling said. Harry Wilson at Roanoke College says he still doesn’t know what happened in that race.

“I wish I had a ready explanation for you but I do not. I can tell you we went back and did a postmortem on our poll, and we looked at everything we did, and we couldn’t find anything that we did that was incorrect.”

Republicans and Democrats now both have polling showing their guy is ahead. The trick is to figure out which set of assumptions are right, and who’s got the most accurate model for presenting a snapshot in time.

This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association

Michael Pope is an author and journalist who lives in Old Town Alexandria.