Later this month, Republicans will go to the polls in a statewide primary to determine a U.S. Senate candidate. That election might end up being heavily influenced by what happens in two congressional districts.
Usually, the race at the top of the ticket influences other elections down ballot. But the Republican primary this month is the opposite. The race at the top of the ticket — the primary for U.S. Senate — hasn’t really attracted all that much money or attention.
David Ramadan at George Mason’s Schar School says that means Republican primaries in the Second Congressional District and the Third Congressional District will end up driving turnout.
“It is the opposite of conventional wisdom. Normally it’s the higher ticket that carries the lower ticket," Ramadan says. "In this scenario because the higher ticket are newcomers to the political scene without a well-known name among the party or among constituents in general, the lower ticket here, namely the congressional ticket, is going to carry the higher ticket.”
Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett says the Republican primary in the Second Congressional District will end up being the most significant because that’s where freshman Democrat Elaine Luria was able to unseat former Republican Congressman Scott Taylor.
“It is interesting that the one major Republican primary to overlap here is on the same day going to be held as a congressional primary that features the guy who dropped out of the Senate race to begin with," he explains. "Obviously, Scott Taylor was supposed to be the Republican candidate against Mark Warner before he flipped back to run against Elaine Luria again."
The primary is later this month on June 23rd. The deadline to submit an application for an absentee ballot is June 16th.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
