AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
It's been more than two years since the start of Sudan's civil war, a conflict that's brought widespread devastation and famine to parts of the country. But now the Trump administration is intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the fighting that's killed tens of thousands of people. The two warring parties, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces - commonly known as the RSF - and the country's army, had previously agreed to ceasefire proposals only for them to fall apart. To discuss this, we're joined by Alex de Waal. He's the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University and a Sudan scholar. Welcome to the show.
ALEX DE WAAL: It's good to be with you.
RASCOE: We should start in Darfur, which has seen intense fighting in recent weeks. What do we know about the situation there?
DE WAAL: So the RSF overran the capital city of North Darfur, a city called El Fasher, which was the last government garrison holding out against it. And immediately following that capture, the most horrible atrocities unfolded. And they didn't unfold in the dark. The killers themselves videotaped themselves killing unarmed civilians, torturing, tormenting captives, and then casually shooting them as they smiled. And we don't know how many thousand people have been killed. As well as this appalling death toll, every single child who is being admitted to clinics run by charities nearby, every single one is malnourished, and we don't know how many hundreds, if not thousands, have starved to death.
RASCOE: We should note that the RSF has denied targeting civilians, but the group was accused of carrying out genocide by the Biden administration. How significant is the capture of that city to the outcome of this war?
DE WAAL: So what it does is it means that the RSF is in control of almost all of the towns west of the River Nile. And now the country is increasingly looking to be divided geographically, essentially along that river, which runs through the center of the country from the south to north. So we have the army controlling one side, the RSF controlling the other. A sort of de facto partition of the country.
RASCOE: This conflict is between the country's army and this paramilitary group. Can you tell us more about the RSF and its leader?
DE WAAL: So 20 years ago, many of your listeners will have been familiar with the name Janjaweed. There was a genocide in Darfur, and a irregular militia was mobilized by the government of Sudan as the spearhead for its counterinsurgency. And it went on the rampage through Darfur, killing, burning, looting, raping. And that Janjaweed force evolved into the RSF. The government was told to disarm it. It refused. In fact, it could never have seriously disarmed it. They had become so powerful. And one of the RSF commanders, a man called Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo - he's widely known as Hemedti - became its chief. And he became not only a capable military commander but also a businessman. He controlled Sudan's largest gold reserves. He rented out his troops to fighters - mercenaries in Yemen in particular, but also in other places like Libya. So he runs a sort of commercial military operation of these utterly ruthless and determined fighters who are, unfortunately, a match for the regular army.
RASCOE: The Trump administration says it's working to end the fighting. What are these efforts and how significant are they?
DE WAAL: So the Biden administration completely failed on this. It really did next to nothing. Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has got the formula right, and what he's trying to do is to get the neighboring Arab countries, which are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, that have taken different sides. He wants to get them around the table. And he has got them in principle to agree to a plan, starting with a humanitarian ceasefire, followed by political negotiations to restore a civilian-led government. On Thursday, the RSF said it would adopt a ceasefire. Now, you need two for a ceasefire. And what it appeared to be doing was it just wanted to improve its reputation after these terrible massacres were exposed. It's not actually observing the ceasefire. Its drones are attacking other cities in Sudan. And the other side has not agreed to it. The other sides is vowing revenge, saying it will continue fighting. So there really is no ceasefire.
RASCOE: What are the chances of success?
DE WAAL: So there are two things that really need to happen. One is the United Arab Emirates, which backs the RSF, needs to use its leverage on the RSF. And there's some signs it might be beginning to do that. The other is that other countries in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia, Egypt and also Turkey and Qatar that have leverage on the other side - to get them to agree. If that were to happen, it could at least begin to stabilize the situation, and Sudanese could begin to see a possible way out of the current calamity.
RASCOE: That's Alex de Waal from Tufts University. Thank you so much for joining us.
DE WAAL: You are very welcome.
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