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Population Forecasts Show a Slowing Virginia

Virginia is growing. But a new report says it may not be growing at the rate that was expected.

Virginia has experienced rapid population growth in the last few decades. But a new report from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia says that growth is slowing down considerably.

The last decade saw 13% growth. But the next decade is expected to see 8% growth. Shonel Sen is a research and policy analyst at the Weldon Cooper Center, and she says the population gains will not be evenly distributed.   “More than 70% of the state’s population will be living in Virginia’s three metropolitan areas and only 12% of  Virginians will be living in the non-metro areas,” according to Sen.

In the next two decades, the largest growth is expected in Loudoun County, which is forecast to grow 55%.

On the other side of that are places that are expected to decline, places like Buchanan County and Danville, which are both forecast to lose about a quarter of their population in the next two decades. 

“There are both the aging of the population, people staying in place and growing older, as well as then having lower birth rates and people leaving those localities," Sen says.  "All of these play a role and so that leads to the decline in some of these cities and counties across Virginia.”

More than 50 counties and cities in Virginia are expected to decline in population by 2040.

Click here for detailed population forecasts

This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.

Michael Pope is an author and journalist who lives in Old Town Alexandria.