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What an "October surprise" looks like in the age of the election season

NPR

As more and more people choose to vote early, the pace of campaigns is changing.

When President Biden announced student loan forgiveness for 40 million Americans in late August, some people wondered about the timing.

"The first thing I thought of was, ‘Oh, October surprise came early this year,'" says Jennifer Victor at George Mason University.

"If you are a campaign or a group that wants to turn out voters, and you want to have the maximum impact on the most voters who haven't already voted, then you would time it for the beginning of October or the end of September."

When Election Day was the sole focus of campaigns, the idea of an October surprise was a time-honored way to change the narrative leading into the final few weeks before an election. But now with early voting, Election Day is more of a season. And every day in October is essentially Election Day.

Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington says that's having a subtle influence over the pacing of campaigns.

"An October surprise does no good when you think about all the people who’ve already voted by this point," Farnsworth explains. "You now need a September surprise really to impact the election in the way that an October surprise used to."

And this is a trend that doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon. Virginia has a 45-day window for early voting; that’s the longest in the country. And even after pandemic-era restrictions were eased, voters seem to like the convenience of voting on their schedules. So campaigns are having to readjust.

This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.

Michael Pope is an author and journalist who lives in Old Town Alexandria.