Fears of rising crime might be widespread. But, long-term crime statistics tell a different story.
You may have heard candidates on the campaign trail talking about rising crime. But FBI stats actually tell a very different story. In the last 30 years, the violent crime rate in Virginia has fallen 44%. And the property crime rate has fallen 66%.
Jay Albanese is a professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.
"People tend to believe that society is getting worse rather than getting better, and that runs across societies and over time," Albanese explains.
The one crime that has not been going down is murder, a crime that is the most infrequent but also one that tends to attract the most attention. 2020 saw an unprecedented spike in murders. But now, that trend appears to be moving in the other direction. Jeff Asher at AH Datalytics says the latest numbers from big cities across the country show a 12% decline in murders.
"A 12% decrease, if that trend holds for the rest of the year, which is a big if, would portend to a decent, possibly record, decline in murder from one year to the next,” Asher says.
He says perceptions of crime are often driven by anecdotes, which explains why many people believe crime is at a historic high, when in fact it's been declining for decades.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
