If you watch much TV, you've probably seen a few commercials about crime in Virginia.
"Joe Biden's America. Dangerous. Lawless. Crime is up..."
That's one of the many political ads this year aimed at making television viewers believe crime is up. But is it?
"Overall, Virginia crime, like much of the nation, has come down significantly over the last 30 years," says Jeff Asher, a crime analyst based in New Orleans.
He points to FBI crime statistics that show violent crime is down almost 40% since the early 1990s. Murder is down 20%. And the most common kind of crime, property crime, is down 60%, and it's currently at one of the lowest rates ever.
He says the numbers spiked during the pandemic, but that was a short-term blip in an otherwise decades long trend of declining crime rates.
"What we're seeing is a general decline in the types of crimes that I think people were very concerned about, and rightly so, in 2020 and 2021 when we saw big increases," Asher says. "That trend is not continuing."
A recent poll by the Schar School at George Mason University shows Virginia voters trust Republicans over Democrats on crime-related issues by 13 points. Many Republicans are hitting the campaign trail talking about how woke prosecutors are a danger to communities across Virginia, even if the data doesn't back that up.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
