Governor Glenn Youngkin says Virginia’s over 140,000 civilian federal employees have little to fear if former President Donald Trump’s promise to fire many of them comes true.
“There are fabulous opportunities for folks to find a new employer in Virginia should the one they work for move away,” Youngkin said after a recent meeting of the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates, or GACRE.
Trump has said he plans to “reign in bureaucrats…”
“As many as 100,000 government positions could be moved out, and I mean immediately, of Washington to places filled with patriots,” the former president said in a campaign video.
But Fairfax Senator Scott Surovell said it wouldn’t be that simple. He pointed to Project 2025, a conservative plan for a major overhaul of federal government functions and benefits, and noted it goes even further — seeking to reclassify 50,000 federal workers as political appointees, possibly costing the state’s DC suburbs even more federal jobs.
“I’m not sure everybody’s skills just translate to any old job that’s out there,” Surovell warned. “It's very optimistic thinking.”
And while Youngkin spent last week praising initiatives he said opened 10,000 new startups in the state, Surovell said Youngkin’s overall impact on the job market has been minimal.
“Unemployment was about the same when he took office,” Surovell said.
According to the St. Louis Fed, Virginia’s unemployment rate was on a downward trend until 2019. It’s since hovered around 3% since, with a noticeable spike during the COVID pandemic.
GACRE meetings have been held since the 70s and allow business leaders and elected officials to discuss privately what economic issues the Commonwealth faces, provide projections and inform how the state should budget in the future.
“The tail winds in Virginia right now are very good,” Youngkin said, sharing what he could after the meeting wrapped. Still, he warned inflation continues to burden the state with retail and service sectors getting hit the hardest.
“It's something causing margin compression in business and Virginians, particularly our middle class,” he said. “They’re making it day to day.”
Youngkin also hoped for future reductions in federal interest rates, something he said was dragging down new house construction.
“Lower interest rates will unlock more development and that’s just clear,” he added.
Still, modest past estimates have led to surpluses which the governor said helped fund "shared priorities.”
Hundreds of millions of dollars were allocated for mental health services, education and early child care in the last budget. And those surpluses helped fill in voids left behind in the funding of a veterans education benefit program that required two special sessions.
Still, state Senator Ryan McDougle told Radio IQ Virginia’s legislature has a history of budgeting conservatively no matter the forecast and that’s likely to continue in 2025.
“Many of us will continue to advocate for that approach — before this meeting and after this meeting,” he told Radio IQ.
Surovell agreed with that sentiment, though he warned of a looming commercial real estate crisis in northern Virginia that legislators may need to address in the future.
“As these commercial leases come up, properties are going into foreclosure,” he said. “And given that northern Virginia tax revenue is what drives revenue for the entire state, there’s a risk there.”
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
