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What Will the Winter Season Mean for Virginia?

AP Photo / Cliff Owen

With Thanksgiving behind us, many may be wondering: what can Virginia expect weather-wise this winter? Nick Gilmore recently paid a visit to the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg to find out.

Every year, the Climate Prediction Center puts out a winter outlook product that predicts what Mother Nature will bring to different parts of the country.

 

“Generally for Virginia the outlook this winter is for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.”

 

Phil Hysell is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Blacksburg office.

 

“Now, I hope people do not interpret that as it’s going to be 65 degrees and sunny through the whole winter. There will be bouts of colder temperatures and there will be winter precipitation as well.”

 

Hysell says those “normal” values come from an average of thirty years of temperature and precipitation records.

 

“For example, in Blacksburg our average snowfall is about 23 inches per year, so if you are looking at below normal snowfall, you would say the snow is expected to be less than 20 inches.”

 

NWS Meteorologist James Morrow says those predictions come from observations of global weather patterns known as “teleconnections.”

Generally for Virginia the outlook this winter is for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

 

Those patterns often give clues to forecasters about the location of the ever-changing jet stream.

 

“One thing that we really pay attention to as meteorologists in the shorter time scales is the location of that jet and that jet stream – the fast moving air in the atmosphere – and that allows us to tell, ‘Hey, there’s a chance of some cyclone formation.’ And those mid-latitude cyclones really drive our winter pattern here in Virginia.”

 

One such teleconnection that can impact winter weather conditions across the state is known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

 

“So when discussing ENSO patterns, like La Nina and El Nino, we really focus on some larger-scale patterns such as the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. So, even those types of patterns have impacts for us well to north in the northern latitudes.”

 

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Phil Hysell says that we are currently in a La Nina pattern, which typically means lower precipitation totals for this part of the country during the winter months.

 

Despite the below average prediction from the CPC, Hysell says it only takes one big storm to push snow totals above the average. And, while snow may get all the headlines, Hysell believes Virginia is overdue for a crippling ice storm.

 

Morrow says one way to stay ahead of winter weather is to keep a preparedness kit in your car at all times.

 

You can find extended forecasts from the CPC here. The latest winter weather updates can be found all season long at the National Weather Service's website.

 

 

winter_outlook_extended_interview_final.mp3
WEB EXTRA: Here is an extended interview with Meteorologists Phil Hysell and James Morrow.

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