We’ve been looking this week at critical political races happening in the state this election year -- races that could determine which party has control of the state senate. What happens with those seats will depend largely on who comes out to vote.
When there’s no presidential name on the top of a ticket, it’s called an off-year election. And turn out-numbers for off-year elections? According to Quentin Kidd, a political analyst at Christopher Newport University, they aren’t so hot.
“We’re projecting turnout this year to be 30% or less. Probably somewhere between 25 and 30%.”
This year in Virginia isn’t even an off-year, it’s an off-off year. So, there’s no presidential race like there was in 2012 when 70-percent showed up to the polls. And there’s no race for governor or U.S. Senator. Instead all the races are local. And most don’t even have two people running.
“We have about a third of House of Delegates races that actually have more than one candidate running. And even fewer are actually competitive where either candidate could win if things go right.”
But for those races that are competitive, who comes out to vote matters. That’s because low voter turnout in these local elections, doesn’t cut across both parties evenly -- Democrats take a harder hit than Republicans.
“In part because the general characterization of the Republican voter is a little bit older, a little bit whiter, a little bit more suburban. And that kind of voter tends to be a little bit more connected to the community."
A lot of work goes into the ground-game of a campaign. Both offices I visited in Richmond-- republican and democratic -- have a list of voters along with addresses and numbers. Mollie Binotto, campaign manager at the democratic office, explains.
“So this is just maps of registered voters, it’s all public information, and you get that from the state. And you know we’re doing this as a way to make sure we get the word out about the election and you know what’s at stake.”
Binotto gestures to the full room hard at work behind her, making phone calls. In the front lobby a small huddle of people have their rain jackets on, ready to knock on doors despite the bad weather.
“I think everyone would tell you this is a labor of love. Meaning we believe in the democratic process, we believe in this district, and we believe in what we’re doing here.”
Becca Lowe has been volunteering for the 10th district senate campaign,one of the state’s most competitive races, since the summer. She says now is crunch time.
“We need people to get out the vote, we need people to show up and show their support you know… actually… with their vote. So that’s what’s going to be most important. Just reaching out and working as hard as we can, 110% all the time.”
Last minute calls, knocking on doors -- that final push is happening right now across the state.
