In the early winter of the pandemic, there was hope that warmer temperatures in spring and summer might bring an end to it. But research shows it will take more than that to stamp out the virus.
A team of scientists from Virginia Tech and other universities created a worldwide model to see if hot weather would help fight Coronavirus. They looked at air temperatures, air pollution, public policy and many other variables. And what they found is that while heat will make a dent, it will take a lot more than high temperatures to stop the spread of Coronavirus.
Virginia Tech Professor, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, is an expert in modeling and simulation of complex social systems related to human health. He says the models suggest, “Warm weather will help, but the magnitude of help will not be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.”
So, even though the team found that temperatures above 77 degrees, do slow down tansmission rates, a bit more for each point higher, it is not enough to decrease the number of infections to below ‘one to one.’
Any higher than a transmission rate of one to one that means infections will increase.
So heat alone is not the answer, but the team'scomplex and multifaceted modeling suggest that other kinds of approaches to stopping the disease are, in fact, helping, and that the combinations of various factors, could make a difference, lowering the number of new infections.
“What we are finding is, that over time, many regions (around the world) have been trying to decrease transmission of COVID-19 and this is likely to be effective.”
Think handwashing, physical distancing, masks and all those by now, well-known measures.
“Those policies that are implemented in (many different) societies and in different regions,” show how public awareness has changed over time, says Ghaffarzadegan.
The study’s title says it all, “The Modest Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on COVID-19 Transmission.”
As Lead author of the study, Ran Xu puts it, “The results suggest that weather plays a secondary role at best, in containing the disease transmission."
According to the authors, no funding was used to conduct this study.
