Before making predictions for Virginia’s November election or looking ahead to the mid-terms, Larry Sabato shared his thoughts about the last presidential vote. He told a crowd in Charlottesville that Joe Biden was mostly to blame for Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris last year.
“Biden did almost nothing to help her, and his staff was just as nasty as they could be.”
Biden’s delay in getting out of the race left Harris with just 107 days to make her case with the voters, and one of her biggest decisions did her no favors. It was, Sabato says, unwise to choose Minnesota’s governor as her running mate.
“Walz brought nothing to the ticket that mattered in terms of electoral votes. If you’re a Democrat and you can’t carry Minnesota, you shouldn’t be the nominee.”
Instead, Sabato says, there were two others who could have propelled Harris to victory.
“Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, because it’s got a lot of electoral votes, and sure enough it went to Trump narrowly, and Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona.”
He then pressed ahead to Virginia’s statewide vote which has already begun. Sabato is betting most voters will favor Democrat Abigail Spanberger for governor, because they dislike Donald Trump.
“We’re getting close to a majority who say they strongly disapprove of his performance as president, and he’s only – less than nine months through the first year.”
He also expects Democrats running for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General to ride Spanberger’s coattails to Richmond.
“The candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general could walk down the Corner and not be recognized by anybody, so it probably will be a ticket election.”
Then he was on to next year’s congressional races. Sabato says very few seats will actually be in play.
“There are 188 seats that are absolutely guaranteed, even if Armageddon arrives, to vote for a Republican House member. There are 166 seats absolutely that will vote Democratic no matter what happens, so we’re left with the leaning seats. There are 20 leaning Democratic seats, 7 leaning Republican seats and 18 toss-ups, and that’s it.”
He predicts $2-3 billion will be spent in those 45 districts.
Of course there’s a mad dash to redistrict in many states.
“Indiana is going to give Republicans another one or two seats. Ohio probably will take two or maybe three seats away from Democrats. Missouri has already done it. They’ve taken one seat. Republicans are going to pick up – I would say -- seven, eight seats net.”
But he doesn’t think Democrats should panic. Even in new districts, drawn to give Republicans an advantage, there could be upsets
"Trump is not going to change. We all know that. There’s no way he’s going to change, and that strongly disapprove number is going to continue to inch up, and it’s going to tip just enough of those lean-R and likely-R seats and certainly toss ups into the Democratic party to make up for the loss with gerrymandered seats and then some.”
Asked how he makes his remarkable predictions, the UVA professor of political science credits students who dig-up data on a regular basis. He calls his newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and he claims the ball also deserves credit.
“Mine came from China. This was pre-tariff, so I got it for a very reasonable price. It only works late at night after a few drinks, and then I see things very clearly. Ocassionally, Mr. Jefferson comes by.”
Sabato dives deep into the 2024 election with his own analysis and essays by various journalists who covered the race in a new book – Campaign of Chaos.
