Virginia's unemployment rate is expected to be higher than the national average next year, a stunning reversal for a state economy that had been the envy of other states for years. That's the forecast of the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
"We expect the unemployment rate to continue to climb until about next summer at about 5%," says executive director Eric Scoresone. "That is not great coming from 2.6 or 2.7%. That's almost a doubling of the unemployment rate from last summer."
Doubling unemployment in Virginia will have knockoff effects, says UVA economist Joao Ferreira.
"You'll see a decline particularly in certain sectors that we know that are very sensitive to consumer confidence," according to Ferreira. "For example, leisure and accommodation because it includes restaurants, theaters and entertainment."
The loss of federal government jobs is being offset some by increases in employment for local governments, although the Weldon Cooper Center says some of that is a short-term bump tied to stimulus money and pandemic programs.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
