Washington, D.C. flew into a panic last weekend. Schools closed, parents scrambled, flights were canceled, and mayors declared emergencies.
"There's a storm coming!" people in and around the nation's capital exclaimed to one another Sunday night. "Are you ready? Charge your phone, so you can call for help! But unplug your laptop, because of lightning! Prune the trees! Fill your bathtubs! Juice up your generator! Stay away from windows! Hoard power bars! Hunker down!"
Then, not a lot happened.
The severe weather, with rain, hail, tornadoes, and hurricane-force wind gusts predicted for Monday, March 16, never quite blew into town.
My family and I dared to venture out for a birthday dinner in what turned out to be a light mist. After all the dire predictions, it was almost disappointing. It was almost refreshing.
"What a HORRIBLE forecast by meteorologists — especially myself," local meteorologist Matthew Cappucci wrote on X, "…essentially a nothing-burger…" He posted a video in which he noted that schools, airlines, cities and families had upset their plans,"…much of it under my advice…Ten million people were notified of something that didn't really wind up happening."
He explained that the movement of storms through the Carolinas had reduced the "storm fuel" of warmer air that he and other meteorologists had expected to smack into a cold front and whip up turbulence. And to be sure, there were winds and rain strong enough to fell several trees, flood a few roads, and knock out power in some Maryland and Virginia suburbs.
Another meteorologist, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia, wrote in Forbes that, "A level 4 or 5 storm in the D.C. area is rare," and "preparation was absolutely warranted in places like D.C."
Still, Cappucci said, "We made a horrible forecast." Then he explained why the mistake happened and added words rarely heard from other experts, analysts, and public figures who offer confident predictions on a multitude of platforms: "I'm sorry."
Cappucci has been praised for explaining so clearly the process that led to his bum prediction. He seems a rare figure among Beltway pundits, who acknowledges his mistakes instead of just blowing hot air.
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