All 100 seats of the House of Delegates will be on the ballot this year, although only a dozen are expected to be competitive.
The shifting politics of 2025 has a new ground zero in Virginia: Prince George County, where suburban areas near Petersburg and rural areas way outside the city will have two of the most watched races of the year. Kim Taylor and Carrie Coyner are two House Republicans who hope their part of Prince George County can stay Republican.
"It's not surprising that both these races will be incredibly competitive," says Richard Bland College history professor Adam Zucconi. "And given how well Harris performed here in 2024 – Kaine actually outperformed her in both of these districts as well, too – I suspect that these will have a very competitive election this upcoming November."
One of the swing seats includes the Democratic stronghold of Petersburg, but then also ruby red, Republican rural areas to the east and west. J. Miles Coleman at the University of Virginia says these rural areas are increasingly Republican.
"So, you do have maybe some of the Republican inroads in Southside taking hold there," Coleman says. "It's just kind of a question of, ‘OK, can Democrats turn out their base in Petersburg to kind of cancel that out?’"
Democrats have a one-vote margin in the House, so Republicans are hoping they can hold these two seats and potentially build a majority from there. But they'll be trying to buck a trend: the backlash that usually happens the year after a presidential election.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
