Millennials are leaving Southwest Virginia, although the latest demographic trends indicate a change may be on the horizon.
Millennials are more likely to leave Southwest Virginia than stay. That's been the trend for years, but now that might be showing signs of changing.
"It's not a win. But not nearly as bad of a loss as it looked like just a few years ago," says Hamilton Lombard, a demographics researcher at the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. He says that the long-term trend is that Southwest Virginia has been losing population for years.
"Particularly the millennials. They've had a large share go to college and graduate, but there are relatively few opportunities for college graduates in Southwest Virginia's economy. So, they've lost a large share in the past. What's been really fascinating to see is since the pandemic is that loss really shrink, and in many cases now Southwest Virginia counties are pulling in more young adults than they've lost."
High housing costs and the spread of remote work during the pandemic has changed the dynamic. It hasn't flipped yet, but it's getting there.
"It's still shrinking in the coalfields. Outside of the coalfields of Southwest Virginia, it's actually growing now. And even in the coalfields, it's barely shrinking," Lombard says. "It was losing thousands during the 2010s. It's down to hundreds now."
For now, Northern Virginia is losing young adults and rural Virginia is gaining them. In a few years, Lombard says, that might end up flipping assumptions about where young people go after they graduate college.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
