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Crime is down, but political ads about dangerous criminals are back

Violent crime has dropped dramatically since a pandemic spike, but political candidates keep pledging to protect the public.
Vera Institute for Justice
Violent crime has dropped dramatically since a pandemic spike, but political candidates keep pledging to protect the public.

It’s election season, and as often happens we’re seeing ads pledging to protect us from dangerous criminals.

Here, for example, is Republican Jason Miyares.

“When I took office our murder rate was at a 20-year high, so we launched Operation Ceasefire + cracking down on crime and taking violent repeat offenders off our streets.”

And his opponent Jay Jones – a Democrat.

"Jay Jones increased funding for police and cracked down on sex offenders," says a narrator in one TV ad. "As attorney general, Jay Jones will put violent criminals and drug traffickers where they belong – behind bars. I’m Jay Jones, running for attorney general to keep Virginians safe.”

But it turns out violent crime is way down. Insha Rahman with the VERA Institute for Justice says it spiked during the pandemic, falling sharply this year nationwide and in Virginia.

“It is one of the safest states in the country. Crime continues to go down, and despite that we see a lot of political fear mongering about crime.”

Fairfax Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano says good schools, free and low-cost healthcare, drug treatment and strong gun controls are some real keys to controlling crime.

“Things like our social safety net program, things like Medicaid, all of the things that are now under attack from the federal government are actually the big drivers in keeping communities safe.”

Stimulus money sent during the pandemic was used to support public programs to reduce the rate of violent crime, and a bi-partisan bill passed in 2022 tightened gun laws, while boosting federal neighborhood and school-based crime-fighting programs*.

In 2024, candidates spent $25 million on ads touting their tough-on-crime views here in Virginia. The VERA Institute predicts we will see even more of them this year.

Sandy Hausman is Radio IQ's Charlottesville Bureau Chief