Public school enrollment is expected to decline in the next decade.
Even before the pandemic, public school enrollment was projected to decline – especially in Southside and Southwest Virginia. Now, researchers at the University of Virginia say the pandemic has exacerbated that trend.
"In Virginia since 2007, the number of children born each year has mostly declined," says Zachary Jackson with the Demographics Research Group at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. "That spells smaller kindergarten classes five years later. These smaller class sizes have moved through the ranks of K-12 enrollment, eventually or inevitably reaching the 12th grade."
But fewer students does not mean that the cost of public education will decline.
"It doesn't mean that all their costs will drop proportionately," says Chad Stewart at the Virginia Education Association. "There's still going to be some fixed costs, like keeping the lights on, employing a custodian at every school and keeping buses operating that are going to need to be paid out. And what we’re going to see is less economy of scale."
In January, the Weldon Cooper Demographic Research Group will release the next round of statewide projections, revealing the future of demographic trends in Virginia.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
