Senator Ghazala Hashmi’s win in the Lt. Governor race on Tuesday leaves an empty seat in a once-battleground district west of Richmond. The single seat, if won by Republicans, could block Democrats’ effort to redistrict the state’s congressional districts.
The scenario comes after Virginia Democrats swept all three executive seats and picked up more than a dozen seats in the House. But the senate is split 21-19; a GOP win would evenly divide the body and a tie vote on redistricting would kill the measure.
Democrats announced their intention to redistrict just days before the 2025 election. It comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s request of Republican-led states to “find more seats” ahead of 2026 midterms.
The path to block redistricting in Virginia would not be easy. But Senator Mark Peake, chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, said it's not impossible: “Obviously it is not a favorable district for Republicans, but in these low turnout special elections that’s where we have the opportunity for an upset.”
The rumor wheel suggested moderate Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner as a top candidate for the suburban district, Senate District 15. But she lost her own House race this week by 5 points and did not return requests for comment on her future Senate run.
Two Democrats have already put their hat in the ring for what will likely be a firehouse primary in the coming weeks.
Delegate Mike Jones says he has the experience for the job.
“I have 10 years of legislative experience and 25 years of public service in the Chesterfield and Richmond Area,” Jones told Radio IQ.
But Delegate Debra Gardner says her current district already covers much of the Senate seat she’ll fight for.
“I am well aware of this district and the needs of the people in the community, it is my community,” Gardner told Radio IQ in an interview Thursday.
Both Democratic candidates also promised to support the redistricting amendment which will need to pass early in the 2026 legislative session to go before voters in the spring.
“That’s why it's so important for me to get out there and do everything I can to make sure Democrats keep this seat,” Gardner said.
“Congressman Rob Wittman doesn’t hold town halls in his area,” Jones said of the sitting congressman whose district dips into the Senate seat he’s seeking. “And Chesterfield County deserves so much more than that.”
Gardner walks into the race with the endorsement of Senate President Louise Lucas, a powerful and deep-pocketed ally, though possibly less powerful than if the open seat was near Lucas’ Portsmouth district.
Both candidates’ endorsement lists include a myriad of local officials and organizations. After a writ of elections is issued the local Democratic party is likely to hold a firehouse primary on a to-be-determined weekend.
Among those who’ve endorsed both candidates is Delegate Rozia Hensen. The Woodbridge Democrat told Radio IQ in a text message he was confident both candidates will do a great job.
“But ultimately, it’s their voters who have the final say,” he added.
The chain of potential rapid turnover is somewhat similar to the ascension of then-Delegate Suhas Subramanyam who won a northern Virginia Senate seat in 2023. But the retirement of Congresswoman Jennfier Wexton allowed him to run and win that seat causing a cascading series of special elections that saw then-Delegate Kannan Srinivasan win Subramanyam’s seat and would-be Delegate JJ Singh win his seat. All of this happened in December 2024 with all candidates being seated ahead of the start of the 2025 legislative session.
One part of the equation would be the money; advocates for redistricting already poured $300,000 into Democrats’ coffers ahead of the election, and Peak said a similar investment may happen on the right considering the stakes.
“The probability of winning will impact how much money comes in from national groups,” he said. “But it's certainly the opportunity to spend a little less money than having to defeat the entire referendum and do it in a shorter period of time.”
“That’ll be our objective,” he added. “To convince the folks who have money that this is a good spot to kill this redistricting deal.”
But Tuesday’s election results suggest a steep hill for any Republican candidate to climb.
Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of the election forecaster State Navigate, said he's still waiting for final tallies from the state, but Tuesday’s election showed Senate District 15 likely went blue by about 40 points.
“The chances that Republicans flip Hashmi’s district are quite literally zero,” he told Radio IQ in a text message.
Nuttycombe's organization predicted Democrats would pick up 12 seats in this last election - they picked up 13.
Hashmi still has to issue a notice of resignation, then an election has to be called, but both parties are incentivized to fill the seat. Attempts to reach her office for comment on when she’d kick off the process were not returned.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
