You’re probably well aware of this fact – especially if you work in or have any connections to agriculture – it’s quite dry across the Commonwealth right now.
In the near-term, we are in for a rainy Memorial Day weekend, but our current drought has been months in the making.
“It’s anywhere across the state eight to 10 inches of precipitation to get us back to what would be normal out to that period of time, dating back to last March. So, it’s not something that is going to be fixed or repaired overnight,” says Andrew Ellis, a professor of meteorology and climate science at Virginia Tech. “We’ve got about 131 years of historical data upon which these numbers are based, and we’re somewhere in the top six to 10 years in terms of dryness and spatial coverage, so it’s really unique.”
This is not something happening only in Virginia, either.
“Right now, across the U.S., almost two-thirds, about 62%, of the country is in what the National Drought Mitigation Center would qualify as drought,” Ellis says. “It’s worse here certainly locally in the Southeast, which is Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama – about 99% in drought. Virginia is 100% in drought, roughly more than eight million people. Maryland and D.C. area – 99% – so it’s really pervasive.”
So, what exactly has led us to this point? Ellis says the primary factor has been a La Nina pattern that has been impacting much of the United States since the summer of 2024. That’s the cooling of surface waters in the equatorial, eastern Pacific Ocean that has climate implications across the globe and especially in the U.S.
“It peaked in winter of [2024] and then there was a secondary peak in the fall of 2025. And that secondary peak has really been the cause of this drought that we’re experiencing,” Ellis explains. “La Nina generally brings drier conditions across the southern tier of the United States and then over into the Southeast and up the East Coast up into the Mid-Atlantic region.”
Other factors include limited tropical moisture at the end of last year’s hurricane season. La Nina also contributed to a winter season that was heavy on cool, dry air and light on moisture.
Some potentially good news on the horizon later this year is that all signs are pointing to a shift to an El Nino pattern – which could mean wetter and colder conditions across the southern tier of this country into the winter months.
But right now, it’s summer – and Ellis says that is a particularly difficult season to get out of a significant drought unless you have a tropical system move through (more on what an El Nino would mean for that below) or an unusual weather pattern take hold.
“Because of the warmer temperatures and the greater evaporation rates, the precipitation is just a little bit less effective than it is during the winter season.”
You also have to consider the interconnectedness of the water system. Precipitation directly contributes to groundwater and streamflow levels, and so months of deficits means it will take time for the entire system to catch up.
“We are in the stages of meteorological drought – it stops raining. Then we move into agricultural drought where the soil moisture becomes depleted. We’ve certainly blown through that at this point,” Ellis says. "The next stage would be hydrological drought where rivers, streams, groundwater and then ultimately reservoirs start to suffer. We’re at the stage where across the state, rivers and streams and groundwater really are at an emergency level, but the surface water at reservoirs are still in pretty good shape at this point. They’re usually the last domino to fall. And so, we’re still not quite there yet.”
Ellis adds that this weekend’s rain will at least help that last domino of Virginia’s reservoirs remain in good shape.
What the future holds for the rest of this summer, though, is uncertain – and Virginians should be aware and be conservative when it comes to water usage. Ellis says this is particularly true for folks in rural areas, especially those that have well water.
“Across Virginia, one of the biggest consequences of previous droughts for us has been wildfires,” Ellis adds. "So, I would say being sensitive to the wildfire risk with a lot of dryness and vegetation dryness – that’s another area for Virginians to be focused on in terms of personal responsibility.”
Additionally, Ellis says Virginians can also help with the drought monitoring effort. The National Drought Mitigation Center has a drought impacts reporter online where folks can send in pictures and information about conditions on the ground, which Ellis says is directly folded into each week’s update of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
NOAA forecasts "below average" 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but stresses preparedness
NOAA is predicting that this year’s season – which begins on June 1st and runs through November – has a 55% chance of being below average. Here’s Neil Jacobs – Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere – describing what that means.
“This equates to eight to 14 named storms with winds at or above 39 miles an hour," Jacobs says. "Of these, three to six hurricanes with winds at or above 74 miles an hour. And one to three major hurricanes – that’s your Category 3 to 5 – with winds at or above 111 miles an hour.”
NOAA says the below average forecast is largely due to signs pointing towards a shift to El Nino in the coming months. El Nino conditions tend to lead to more wind shear in the Atlantic, which makes it harder for tropical systems to develop.
However, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says everyone should take necessary precautions now regardless of the forecast.
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