The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – or NOAA – released its first projections for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. Officials say now is the time to prepare for the fast-approaching season.
NOAA is predicting that this year’s season – which begins on June 1st and runs through November – has a 55% chance of being below average. Here’s Neil Jacobs – Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere – describing what that means.
“This equates to eight to 14 named storms with winds at or above 39 miles an hour," Jacobs says. "Of these, three to six hurricanes with winds at or above 74 miles an hour. And one to three major hurricanes – that’s your Category 3 to 5 – with winds at or above 111 miles an hour.”
NOAA says the below average forecast is largely due to signs pointing towards a shift to El Nino in the coming months. El Nino conditions tend to lead to more wind shear in the Atlantic, which makes it harder for tropical systems to develop.
However, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says everyone should take necessary precautions regardless of the forecast.
“And don’t let words like ‘below average’ – don’t let all those words change how you prepare," Graham says. "It just takes one.”
NOAA is rolling out several new tools this year to help the public be more informed. That includes new forecast models powered by artificial intelligence and expanded flood inundation mapping. Over the last decade, more than half of fatalities from tropical systems in this country were caused by flooding, many of those in inland communities.
The National Hurricane Center will also implement an improved version of its tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will include watch and warning information for inland communities within the continental United States.
There's also work underway on an experimental version of that cone graphic that would highlight a greater range of possible outcomes with storm tracks — incorporating "uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing."
