It has been five months since the first case of COVID-19 in Virginia. And we’re close to a grim milestone --- 100-thousand cases in the state. For a big picture look at where things stand now in Virginia, reporter Mallory Noe-Payne has been looking over the data and chatting with experts.
JB: So we initially hit a peak of cases near the end of May. Around that same time the governor extended the state of emergency face mask became required in public places and cases began to drop. Where do we stand now?
MNP: Well, we actually stand close to back where we were during that peak, roughly a thousand new cases a day that doesn't surprise experts. They all predicted that as restrictions slowly loosened, the case numbers would go up, but there are some big differences between now and then one of which is where in the state, those cases are coming from. Back in May, you may remember most new cases — about two thirds — were out of Northern Virginia. And today the virus is present in every community. Every part of Virginia. The biggest jumps recently have been from the Eastern region around Hampton roads. We heard about that spike from the Governor last week, and that does appear now to be leveling out. But there have also been rather significant increases in certain parts of central, south side, Western Virginia — for instance, Lynchburg, Danville, Martinsville in south side and Wise in Western Virginia.
JB: Raw case numbers are just one way to measure the outbreak. But how are we looking in terms of other measurements like hospitalizations, deaths and percent positivity?
MNP: Uh, okay. Let's start with hospitalizations. As to be expected, they've also been rising as case counts have, but not quite to the same extent — we haven't gotten back up to where we were during that first peak. And it's the same story for the number of deaths from coronavirus. So those are two pieces of good news. A bit of a warning though. Experts say those data points are both lagging indicators… The first numbers to come in are case counts. And then it can take a little bit of time after for hospitalizations to rise and even more time for the data on the number of deaths to roll in. So we'll have to kind of wait and see.
JB: And what about percent positivity? That's the number that measures how many people are getting tested and what percentage of them are testing positive.
MNP: Sure. This is a little bit of, of the, the good side. Even though case counts are going up our percent, uh, and closer to what they were back in May, our percent positivity is much lower than it was at that time. So we can be more confident that we're getting a more accurate picture of the spread and scope of the virus in the state. Virginia has done a good job of ramping up testing. We're hovering between 6 and 7% positivity. That's below the Governor's goal of 10% and certainly much better than other states in the South where the virus has been spiking. But researchers at Harvard tell me that we've been at that rate for a really long time. And ideally, you'd like to see that number, keep going down. Here's Harvard Doctor Thomas Tsai.
Tsai: “The WHO recommends at this phase of the pandemic that a test positive rate goal should be less than 5%. Our research team in collaboration with a lot of our colleagues have been advocating for a positive rate of less than 3%, especially at this point in the pandemic.”
And so that's lower than we're at, and it's not impossible. Massachusetts, New York, Michigan, they've all had a test positive rates below 3% since mid July.
JB: What efforts are happening now in Virginia to keep ramping up the testing?
MNP: Well, the governor announced this week that Virginia is joining forces with several other states, including Maryland, to try to ramp up testing and speed up testing. People may have noticed that one of the big issues now is how long results are taking. So this multi-state compact is using their increased purchasing power to try to get a good deal on millions of new tests that are called antigen tests. The governor described what's different about these types of tests during his press conference yesterday,
Northam: “Which delivers results in, as I said earlier, in 15 to 20 minutes. This is about expanding testing and saving you money.”
So the tests are fast and the hope is with more of them officials can continue to stay on top of where the virus is spreading. And I just want to note that that's going to be very important as we head into the Fall and students in some parts of the state go back to school in person and — not to mention — college students across the state coming back to campuses.
JB: Okay, well, Richmond reporter Mallory Noe-Payne thanks so much for checking in with us.
MNP: You’re welcome.
