Fresh on the heels of the second and final debate, a new poll shows the race for governor is still tight leading into the final few weeks of the election.
Democrat Terry McAuliffe is leading Republican Glenn Youngkin by seven points, 48% to 41% according to a new poll from Roanoke College. The poll has a margin of error of 4 points.
Harry Wilson at Roanoke College says while the Democrat is ahead overall, Republicans are way more enthusiastic.
"43% of Republicans said they were extremely enthusiastic, only 35% of Democrats," says Wilson. "So that does suggest that Republicans may be more likely to turn out, and that's not surprising because for the party out of power that's often the case."
Other recent polling has shown Youngkin potentially pulling ahead with likely voters, and Wilson says every poll has its own logic of how to weight the votes.
"We consistently weight to the most recent relevant exit polls," explains Wilson. "So in 2020, we weighted to match the Virginia exit poll of 2016. In 2021, we are matching the 2017 exit poll."
There really is no right or wrong answer to how these polls are weighted, he says, and we really won't know the answer until all the votes are counted after the election is over.
Roanoke College is a financial supporter of RADIO IQ.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
