Now that the United States Supreme Court has ended the effort to redraw Virginia's congressional map, Democrats and Republicans are refocusing on the existing map.
Everything that's old is new again in Virginia politics, and that includes the congressional map that was drawn after the 2020 Census. The most likely seat for the Democrats to flip from red to blue is in Hampton Roads, where incumbent Jen Kiggans will likely face former Congresswoman Elaine Luria.
J. Miles Coleman at the University of Virginia Center for Politics says that seat is a toss-up, and he says Republican Congressman Rob Wittman is also likely to face a serious challenge in Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor.
"That's one that we rate as Leans Republican. So, you know, the Republicans are a bit of a favorite right now, but that's one that the Democrats still could get," Coleman says. "In fact, last year, Governor Spanberger narrowly carried that First District."
Wes Bellamy at Virginia State University says former Congressman Tom Perriello might even be able to unseat Republican Congressman John McGuire, which the Center for Politics rates as "likely Republican."
"With the victory from the redistricting vote in Virginia, there is now a reason to see philanthropists, organizers, the DCCC, pour money into that race specifically because it can be flipped," Bellamy says. "And when you have a candidate who's won it, and people are very familiar with Tom Perriello, I think that there is a potential to be able to ride that wave into victory for the Democrats."
Democrats and Republicans will select candidates in a statewide primary on August 4th.
