Is Virginia’s economy headed for a rough patch?
New economic numbers from George Mason University are showing an unsettling trend for consumer expectations, retail sales and residential building permits.
“All of those have been pulling down in recent months," says Jeanette Chapman at the Stephen Fuller Institute. "Some of this was noisier than usual because of the shutdown, and then the recovery from that shutdown has made the numbers a little bit bouncier than usual, but they are trending down.”
A new report from the Fuller Institute says in ordinary times, this would be seen as a signal of impending contraction. But the report also points out these are not ordinary times, when economic policy is formulated on the fly, communicated on Twitter and reversed on a whim.
“Consumer confidence is a major concern nationally right now, and when people get nervous they stop buying things," Chapman explains. "They stop making plans for the future because they’re just uncertain about what’s going to happen.”
And she doesn’t expect that uncertainty to end anytime soon. The projections in the report have the forecast trend lines headed down into the red for the foreseeable future.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
