Turnout in midterm elections tends to be a bit lighter, even though Virginia often plays an important role in shaping the election.
In 2006, Jim Webb defeated George Allen and helped Democrats take control of the Senate. In 2010, during the Tea Party wave, Republicans flipped three Congressional seats. Then in the 2018 anti-Trump mid-terms, Democrats flipped three seats.
"When there is a great deal of strife in the president seat, Virginia tends to lean in the opposite direction," says Wes Bellamy at Virginia State University. "So, I would not be surprised if Dems don't have another blue wave of sorts."
Three of the mainstream Democrats on the ballot this week have challengers with endorsements from the Democratic Socialists of America. But Mark Rozell at George Mason University says those DSA candidates are not expected to gain much traction this year.
"In Virginia, the Democratic Party traditionally has been a little bit more to the center than the national party," Rozell says.
Democrats will be selecting candidates to run against three Republicans they’re targeting this fall: Jen Kiggans, Rob Wittman and John McGuire.
